ASML Holding N.V. (ASML): A Bull Case Theory

1 month ago 11

Ricardo Pillai

Thu, December 4, 2025 astatine 10:06 AM CST 3 min read

We came crossed a bullish thesis connected ASML Holding N.V. connected Rebound Capital’s Substack. In this article, we volition summarize the bulls’ thesis connected ASML. ASML Holding N.V.'s stock was trading astatine $1060.00 arsenic of November 28th. ASML’s trailing and guardant P/E were 37.71 and 34.48 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of precocious semiconductor instrumentality systems. ASML has been a beardown performer, rising astir 23% since Rebound Capital initiated coverage successful June 2025, importantly outperforming the S&P 500. The institution is slated to study third-quarter 2025 results connected October 15, and Rebound Capital is introducing an “earnings preview” framework, aimed astatine organization and short-term investors, to analyze expected stock behavior around earnings, cardinal metrics, absorption commentary, and guidance.

ASML’s intrinsic worth is estimated astatine €982 per stock versus the existent terms of €836, implying a imaginable upside of 17%, and immoderate post-earnings dip could connection a favorable entry point. Positive catalysts see stronger-than-expected bookings, traction connected its High NA EUV machines, and increasing request from the emerging AI representation market, as cutting-edge memory chips necessitate ASML’s lithography systems. Negative catalysts could see guidance that reflects continued economical uncertainty, tariff impacts, oregon China-related restrictions.

Historically, ASML’s banal tends to respond sharply astir earnings, often moving much than 5% careless of EPS beats, with bookings and guidance being the superior drivers. Investors should absorption connected semipermanent 2030 gross guidance, FY26 gross expectations, quarterly bookings, and gross borderline trends, arsenic these indicators bespeak ASML’s pricing powerfulness and marketplace positioning.

Management is conservative, consistently under-promising portion aiming to over-deliver, particularly connected AI-related demand, which suggests upside surprises could positively power the stock. Analysts and Rebound Capital expect the marketplace to absorption connected FY26 gross guidance alternatively than the header 4th results, anticipating a mean affirmative absorption of astir 5%, portion longer-term guidance remains unchanged. Potential risks, including China export restrictions, are largely priced in, and immoderate mislaid gross is expected to beryllium offset by the accelerating AI memory supercycle, positioning ASML for dependable growth.