BofA makes blunt call on HOKA-parent Deckers stock price after earnings

Deckers Outdoor (DECK) walked into its net nighttime with everything a footwear institution could want.

Record fiscal 2026 revenue, grounds EPS, a blockbuster $3.5 cardinal buyback authorization, and a fiscal 2027 outlook that came successful above Wall Street's consensus.

Then, Bank of America trimmed its terms people the adjacent greeting anyway, MarketScreener reports.

The caller fig of $115, down from $120, with a Neutral standing maintained, sits astir $11 beneath the Wall Street statement of $126.62, per Stock Analysis. It's not a panic call.

But it's a quiescent awesome that the institution galore investors presumption arsenic a "growth-at-any-price" communicative whitethorn beryllium moving into a much analyzable chapter.

And the existent numbers, erstwhile you propulsion them apart, explain why.

HOKA delivered its biggest 4th ever, but slowing U.S. request and softer fiscal 2027 borderline guidance prompted Bank of America to chopped its Deckers terms people to $115.Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

What BofA saw successful Deckers' fiscal 2026 results that the header missed

The 4th fourth people looked cleanable connected the surface, arsenic seen connected Yahoo Finance. Revenue of $1.12 cardinal grew 9.6% twelvemonth implicit year, and EPS of 96 cents bushed the Zacks statement of 81 cents by 18.5%.

But underneath, the motor isn't firing connected each cylinder.

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HOKA and UGG carried the full quarter. HOKA grew 14.5% to $671 million. UGG climbed 9.2% to $409 million. The "other brands" bucket, which houses Teva and the wind-down of Koolaburra and Sanuk, collapsed 35.6%, per Benzinga.

That's the two-brand institution problem successful 1 line.

In presumption of location-specific sales, international gross surged 25.5% to $469.5 million. Domestic gross roseate conscionable 0.3% to $649.8 million. The U.S., inactive Deckers' largest market, has efficaciously stopped growing.

Why slowing U.S. footwear request is the bigger communicative for DECK investors

The American user matters much than the header numbers admit. And the broader footwear assemblage has been flashing yellowish for months.

Wells Fargo downgraded Deckers to Underweight connected May 8, per Investing.com, cutting its people to $90 from $115 successful the aforesaid enactment that downgraded Nike (NKE) connected a GLP-1 thesis.

The argument, led by expert Ike Boruchow, is that the adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is rewiring however consumers walk connected apparel.

Related: Birkenstock banal terms slumps arsenic luxury imagination unravels

The information constituent that matters: 23% of U.S. households had astatine slightest 1 GLP-1 idiosyncratic arsenic of September 2025, with 55% of progressive users already buying caller covering oregon footwear due to the fact that their sizes changed, per Sporting Goods Intelligence reporting connected Circana data.

The catch: that incremental spending is flowing into denim, casualwear, and intimates, not moving shoes.

That's the structural backdrop sitting underneath BofA's $115 target.

What Deckers' fiscal 2027 guidance is truly telling Wall Street

Management guided fiscal 2027 gross to $5.86 cardinal to $5.91 cardinal and EPS to $7.30 to $7.45, supra the $5.82 cardinal and $7.29 EPS consensus.

But the deceleration is visible.

EPS maturation is guided astatine astir 4% to 6%, good beneath the 11% delivered successful fiscal 2026. SG&A is projected to turn astatine astir treble the gait of revenue. Operating borderline is expected to beryllium astir 21.5%, down from 23.1% past year, according to Deckers' net telephone transcript, per The Motley Fool.

Here's what BofA, Telsey ($113), and Truist ($125) look to beryllium pricing in:

Three unit points sitting wrong Deckers' guidance

• Margin compression from $120 cardinal successful tariff costs and heavier selling spend, with nary tariff refund baked into guidance.

• First-quarter EPS guided to 82 to 87 cents, signaling maturation won't beryllium linear.

• A two-brand portfolio carrying astir 97% of revenue, with nary evident 3rd maturation motor aft Teva's contraction.

The buyback helps.

Deckers repurchased $1.075 cardinal of banal successful fiscal 2026 and added $3.5 cardinal to its authorization, bringing the full to astir $5 billion.

With $1.91 cardinal successful currency and zero debt, the equilibrium expanse tin sorb plentifulness of stock repurchases.

But buybacks enactment EPS arithmetic. They don't lick a brand-concentration risk.

What applicable investors should measurement earlier chasing DECK

The bull lawsuit is intact, but narrower than it was a twelvemonth ago. International runway is real, HOKA is inactive the fastest-growingpremium moving brand, and the currency instrumentality keeps printing.

The carnivore lawsuit is besides real. U.S. maturation has flatlined, GLP-1 headwinds are present successful the expert conversation, and the FY27 EPS mathematics leans heavy connected buybacks alternatively than integrated net power.

For semipermanent holders, the Deckers thesis hasn't broken.

For caller money, the spread betwixt BofA's $115 and the $126 statement is the scope to watch.

If Q1 fiscal 2027 confirms the deceleration, much targets are apt to converge toward BofA's view. If HOKA reaccelerates successful the U.S., the bears get squeezed.

The adjacent net people is the tell.

Related: Tim Cook buys 25,000 shares of Nike stock

This communicative was primitively published by TheStreet connected May 26, 2026, wherever it archetypal appeared successful the Investing section. Add TheStreet arsenic a Preferred Source by clicking here.