Goldman Just Lifted Its Oil Forecast Again — And It's Not What Trump Expected

President Donald Trump has called the caller lipid daze a “little excursion” and predicted that prices volition travel down accelerated erstwhile the warfare successful Iran is settled.

But the longer the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the harder that presumption is to defend.

In a enactment dated April 26, Goldman Sachs commodity expert Daan Struyven upgraded the firm’s 2026 fourth-quarter Brent forecast from $80 to $90 and West Texas Intermediate from $75 to $83.

It is the 4th upgrade since the warfare began connected Feb. 27, 2026. The fourth-quarter Brent way has moved from $66 to $71 to $80 to $90 — each revision tied to a longer assumed Hormuz disruption.

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Why Goldman Sees Higher-For-Longer Oil

The revision reflects slower betterment successful Persian Gulf accumulation and delayed normalization of exports, present expected by end-June alternatively of mid-May. Analysts besides raised 2027 estimates to $85 for Brent and $80 for WTI.

“The economical risks are larger than our crude basal lawsuit unsocial suggests due to the fact that of the nett upside risks to lipid prices, unusually precocious refined merchandise prices, merchandise shortages risks, and the unprecedented standard of the shock,” wrote the Goldman team.

The numbers down the upgrade are extreme.

April planetary lipid inventories are drafting astatine 11-12 cardinal barrels per time (mb/d), the fastest gait connected grounds since outer tracking began. Gulf crude accumulation has collapsed to 11.9 mb/d from a pre-war tally complaint of 26.4 mb/d — a 14.5 mb/d hit.

Goldman present sees the marketplace swinging from a 1.8 mb/d surplus successful 2025 to a 9.6 mb/d shortage successful the 2nd 4th of 2026.

The study estimates a astir $30 boost to Brent prices from the disruption, driven by little inventories and higher semipermanent pricing.

The slope besides warned that its baseline understates the upside.

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Goldman outlines 3 cardinal scenarios for Brent successful precocious 2026:

• Base case: $90 per barrel

• Adverse: Just implicit $100 if exports normalize by end-July

• Severe: Nearly $120 with deeper capableness losses

• Benign: Just nether $80 with faster betterment and higher supply

Goldman Sachs’ Oil Price Forecast Update: The Risk Is Now Asymmetric

Updated arsenic of April 26, 2026