JD.com, Inc. (JD): A Bear Case Theory

We came crossed a bearish thesis connected JD.com, Inc. connected Coughlin Capital’s Substack by Brian Coughlin. In this article, we volition summarize the bulls’ thesis connected JD. JD.com, Inc.'s stock was trading astatine $29.83 arsenic of November 28th. JD’s trailing and guardant P/E were 9.94 and 9.92 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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JD.com, Inc. operates arsenic a proviso chain-based exertion and work supplier successful the People's Republic of China. Over the past year, JD.com has shown beardown top-line growth, but the fundamentals uncover a much cautious representation for investors. Q3 2025 results highlighted gross of RMB 299.1 billion, up astir 15% year-on-year, signaling that the company’s retail and logistics segments proceed to expand.

JD Retail not lone grew gross but besides improved operating income, portion JD Logistics posted higher gross contempt a diminution successful operating income. However, New Businesses, which includes JD’s propulsion into speedy commerce and instant delivery, saw operating losses widen to RMB 15.7 billion, putting unit connected wide profitability. Non-GAAP operating income collapsed from RMB 13.1 cardinal to conscionable RMB 0.2 billion, with margins shrinking from 5.0% to 0.1%, and escaped currency travel fell sharply to RMB 12.6 cardinal from erstwhile levels of RMB 30–40 billion, underscoring the challenges of translating gross maturation into sustainable earnings.

Working superior pressures, including higher inventory and receivable days, adhd to the strain connected a low-margin retail model. While the institution continues to innovate and grow services, the deficiency of nett procreation and the deepening losses successful caller initiatives suggest that JD remains a deep-value communicative with important operational risks.

For investors, this operation of beardown top-line maturation but collapsing margins and currency travel challenges indicates a cautious stance, arsenic the marketplace is apt to remain skeptical until the institution tin person its gross momentum into accordant profitability. Given the structural and execution risks, JD presently reflects much of a bearish case, with imaginable rewards constricted comparative to the operational headwinds and borderline pressures the concern faces.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis connected JD.com, Inc. (JD) by BlackSwan Investor successful March 2025, which highlighted the company’s beardown brand, direct-sales model, operational efficiency, and enlargement into nutrient delivery. The company's banal terms has depreciated astir by 26.79% since our coverage. This is due to the fact that the thesis didn’t play out. Brian Coughlin shares a contrarian presumption but emphasizes JD’s collapsing margins and deepening losses successful caller businesses.