Long Bonds Just Lost Money for a Sixth Straight Year, And One Quiet ETF Is Engineered for the Reversal

1 hour ago 3

John Seetoo

Tue, June 16, 2026 astatine 8:57 AM CDT 6 min read

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Long bonds posted six consecutive losing years arsenic yields climbed from 1.56% to 4.78%, but Warsh's imaginable complaint cuts could reverse TLT's 5-year -28% slide.
TLT's 17-year duration converts each 100 ground constituent complaint driblet into astir a 17% terms gain, making it 1 of the sharpest rate-cut plays available.
TLTW pays a 12.53% output by selling monthly covered calls connected TLT, but surrenders the afloat upside if Warsh triggers a crisp rate-cut rally.
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30-YEAR TREASURY substance connected a notebook with pen, calculator and illustration connected grey background

Prior to the commencement of the Iran War, President Donald Trump had been feuding with Jerome Powell astir cutting involvement rates. Despite tremendous superior inflows from tariffs, record-low inflation, and a revived concern clime owed to cutting bureaucratic Biden-era restrictions, Powell stubbornly refused to chopped rates.

Kevin Warsh took the Fed seat oath connected May 22, 2026, officially replacing Jerome Powell. However, the Iran War's interaction connected lipid prices has sent state prices climbing, reviving ostentation to transcend the Fed's prognostications. While galore economists person anticipated that Warsh mightiness request to rise involvement rates to ameliorate inflation, different hints, specified arsenic the freshly announced bid statement with Iran, mightiness alternatively trigger the cuts that President Trump has been advocating since his erstwhile term.

The 30-Year Long Bond began a steep downward spiral successful 2020, not coincidentally with the advent of Bidenomics. The past consecutive six years has shown reddish ink for the Long Bond, arsenic its twelvemonth extremity closeout yields display:

December 31, 2020: 1.56%
December 31, 2021: 2.06%
December 31, 2022: 3.11%
December 31, 2023: 4.09%
December 31, 2024: 4.41%
December 31, 2025: 4.78%

ETFs that way agelong word Treasury Bonds person understandably plummeted successful sympathy. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT) has been the whipping lad of the rate-hike era, and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond BuyWrite Strategy ETF (NASDAQ: TLTW) has served arsenic TLT's income-focused relative that pays you to wait. Bond investors are present trying to fig retired what absorption Warsh plans to take, and what it means for the agelong extremity of the curve. If Warsh leans towards a complaint cut, TLT mathematically gains much than astir immoderate different listed asset.