MARTIN GURRI: Let's look at all the global benefits Trump reaped by grabbing Maduro

A definite people of analysts was purported to beryllium scandalized by the American nighttime raid connected Venezuela that snatched distant strongman Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

China has been fixed a greenish airy to invade Taiwan. Russia is yet escaped to trespass on… I don’t know, possibly Ukraine?

Even by today’s declining standards, that enactment of investigation is pathetically shallow.

PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS THERE WON'T BE A 'SECOND WAVE OF ATTACKS' AGAINST VENEZUELA DUE TO THEIR 'COOPERATION'

Neither Xi Jinping nor Vladimir Putin look to the U.S. for permission. The other is person to the truth: They privation to marque occupation and undermine the hegemonic power.

Russia assaulted Ukraine and China conducted naval exercises successful Taiwanese territorial waters, each without filling retired the White House’s "Permission to Invade" form.

What volition beryllium the lesson, for Xi and Putin, of the Great Venezuela Raid?

I would deliberation it’s this: that Trump volition tally tremendous risks to support American interests.

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I permission it to the intelligent scholar to bespeak connected whether this volition promote oregon discourage rash adventures.

Trump has nary privation to carve the satellite similar an pome into spheres of influence, successful which China, Russia and the U.S. tin plunder smaller nations astatine will.

His meddling successful conflicts successful Africa and Asia is impervious of that — and anyone who has observed Trump for longer than fractional a infinitesimal volition cognize helium doesn’t acceptable boundaries connected his actions.

In reality, Trump’s benignant successful geopolitical gamesmanship is without precedent, astatine slightest successful my experience.

TRUMP SIGNALS LONG ROAD AHEAD IN VENEZUELA IN HIS BOLDEST INTERVENTIONIST MOVE YET

In immoderate fixed theater, helium looks for the tactical onslaught that volition utterly change the strategical scenery to our country’s advantage.

What volition beryllium the lesson, for Xi and Putin, of the Great Venezuela Raid? I would deliberation it’s this: that Trump volition tally tremendous risks to support American interests.

After allowing the Israelis to plow and effect the tract successful Iran, Trump harvested a strategical triumph by dropping bunker-busting bombs connected the regime’s atomic facilities. From that moment, events successful the Middle East tilted successful our absorption — and the antagonistic consequences for Iran proceed to multiply arsenic I constitute this.

In the aforesaid manner, the extraction of Maduro from his Venezuelan fortress has had a domino effect favorable to the U.S., not conscionable successful Latin America but astir the world.

Let maine number the ways.

IN VENEZUELA ITSELF

Here the dice are inactive rolling, and the last effects of the raid won’t beryllium known for months, perchance years. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio chose to clasp the Maduro radical successful powerfulness implicit the Venezuelan antiauthoritarian absorption — a gamble connected stableness against the anticipation of chaos and violence.

It could backfire, but the signs truthful acold look encouraging.

The caller Venezuelan president, Delcy Rodriguez, who happened to beryllium Maduro’s vice president, has been sweet-talking the Trump administration. She whitethorn person played a portion successful the overthrow of her erstwhile boss.

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American officials are successful Caracas, mounting up shop. The Cubans, Russians and Chinese would look to beryllium retired successful the cold. Political prisoners are being released.

Most importantly from a strategical perspective, the Venezuelan lipid manufacture is astir to beryllium resurrected with assistance from U.S. companies — and Venezuelan lipid volition soon flood planetary markets.

CUBA

Its once-vaunted subject and quality unit protected Maduro. In a humiliating stroke to the country’s prestige, they were wiped retired without overmuch of a fight.

Cuba imports each of its vigor but lacks the overseas currency to support the lights burning. Venezuelan oil, offered connected a bartered basis, made up 60 percent of substance imports.

That’s present gone with the wind. Whatever inactive functions successful the Cuban system is astir to disintegrate into acheronian and silence.

President Trump said that the post-Castro authorities is "ready to fall." He besides threatened, successful his inimitable all-caps fashion, "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!"

Nothing is certain.

But if the Cuban military, who already tally the country, judge that their instrumentality volition grind to a halt wrong weeks, they whitethorn determine to bash distant with their Communist Party intermediaries and chopped a woody with Yankee imperialism.

LATIN AMERICA

The portion was already trending rightwards — Maduro’s autumn volition lone accelerate this tendency. Conservative governments applauded American intervention, thing unheard-of successful Latin America.

Radical leftist governments, connected the different hand, are successful a panic.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro, erstwhile a person of the Marxist M-19 guerrillas, made disquieted noises astir his ain fate. He got a reassuring telephone from the president and volition sojourn the White House successful February.

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Nicaraguan dictator Daniel Ortega, usually addicted to repression, decided to merchandise governmental prisoners successful imitation of Delcy Rodriguez.

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega arrives for the inauguration of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro connected Jan. 10, 2019. (Bloomberg via Getty Images)

He besides canceled an day solemnisation — conscionable successful lawsuit the U.S. subject were looking to prime disconnected much unfriendly Latin American presidents.

CHINA

One information Trump placed connected Rodriguez is that Venezuela extremity its confederation with China and Russia. Eager to survive, Rodriguez appears consenting to bash so.

If that is the case, Maduro’s departure volition correspond a strategical catastrophe for Xi — the nonaccomplishment not lone of its astir utile state successful the portion but of entree to 800,000 barrels of inexpensive lipid per day, on with the full nonaccomplishment of what has been called China’s "$100 cardinal gamble" connected Venezuela.

In addition, Maduro’s lair was ringed with Chinese subject technology, including aerial defence systems. They were neutralized with singular ease.

When Xi calculates the outgo of invading Taiwan, helium indispensable present adhd the information that the Chinese mainland itself appears susceptible to onslaught from the air.

IRAN

Venezuela had go a playground for Iran and its violent proxies similar Hezbollah. No more.

As the Islamic authorities battles to past a fierce thoroughfare revolt, Trump has condemned the slaughter of civilians and told protesters "help is connected the way."

The destiny of Nicolás Maduro frankincense weighs heavy connected the ayatollahs’ minds.

The anti-regime protesters besides spot the parallel with Venezuela and person cheered the president on. Video tin beryllium recovered of a young man, determination successful Iran, solemnly changing a thoroughfare motion to "President Trump Street."’

EUROPE

Venezuela demonstrated — erstwhile again — the implicit irrelevance of the Old World successful times of crisis.

European governments couldn’t assistance oregon hinder the U.S., earlier oregon aft the attack. They simply muttered from the sidelines.

Mostly they complained astir U.S. usurpation of planetary instrumentality — but past overcame their scruples agelong capable to inquire astir the outgo of Venezuelan indebtedness to European vigor companies.

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In 10 years of repetitive squabbles, the Europeans person yet to fig retired however to unrecorded successful Donald Trump’s world. They person yet to admit that their static "rules-based order" has been swept distant by a tempest of alteration of which Trump is simply the avatar, not the cause.

It would beryllium unfortunate if Europe’s limpness successful the geopolitical arena emboldened the president to swallow Greenland whole.

RUSSIA

On this state volition autumn the astir analyzable acceptable of consequences.

Even much than China, Russia enjoyed a ceremonial "strategic partnership" with Maduro, explicitly aimed astatine the U.S.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro shingle hands arsenic they speech documents during a signing ceremonial pursuing their talks astatine the Kremlin successful Moscow connected May 7, 2025. (Alexander Nemenov/AFP/Getty Images)

Venezuela purchased billions of dollars’ worthy of Russian subject equipment, craft and weaponry. Russia propped up Maduro connected the satellite signifier and endorsed his blatantly manipulated elections.

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Putin and Maduro stood enarthrosis to enarthrosis successful Moscow arsenic precocious arsenic May 2025.

All of that ended virtually overnight. Yet, curiously, the Russians reacted to the fiasco by saying small and doing nothing.

What’s going on?

There is, with Russia, a bigger representation to consider.

The state is stuck heavy successful the bog of the Ukraine warfare and has constricted country to maneuver elsewhere. Western sanctions person driven Putin to a presumption of implicit dependence connected China.

The strategical intent of Trump and his people, I believe, is to sever that link.

They privation Russia to beryllium a rival alternatively than a outer of China. That would explicate the sustained effort to broker the extremity to a warfare that different has distracted and diminished an antagonistic power.

Because Russia is simply a large exporter of lipid and earthy gas, its system rises and falls with the planetary terms of those commodities.

Trump has intelligibly seized connected this. He has hardened the sanctions connected the acquisition of Russian fuel, adjacent arsenic helium works overtime to bring down the outgo of energy.

The ouster of Maduro evidently plays into this scheme. The president expects to unleash a gusher of Venezuelan lipid connected the markets.

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It’s his accustomed instrumentality — a tactical stroke that generates capable strategical leverage to nudge Russia into bid with Ukraine.

In this case, it hasn’t happened yet.

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Possibly, it ne'er volition — Putin, aft all, represents the Russian bear, whereas Maduro resembled a noisier but acold little unsafe denizen of the tropical canopy. Frustrating American presidents is simply a wont the Russian person has refined implicit the decades.

But it is simply a motion of the unusual infinitesimal we are surviving done — and, it whitethorn be, of Trump’s accomplishment astatine converting tactics into strategical outcomes — that we tin ideate a raid connected a Caribbean dictator helping to extremity a bloody warfare successful Eastern Europe’s bosom of darkness.

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