Morning Minute: Fidelity Calls Bitcoin 'Maturing,' Lays Out 2026 Bull and Bear Case

Morning Minute is simply a regular newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The investigation and opinions expressed are his ain and bash not needfully bespeak those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s apical news:

• Crypto majors are greenish to commencement week; BTC astatine $92k

• Monero (XMR) jumps different 15% and hits caller ATH astatine $680

• US Senate releases draught crypto marketplace operation bill, prohibits stablecoin interest

• Saylor buys $1.25B successful Bitcoin, biggest play acquisition since July

• Fogo and Football dot Fun some to TGE this Thursday, Jan 15

One of the biggest players successful accepted concern conscionable published a 26-page study connected Bitcoin and integer assets.

And their decision is that Bitcoin’s hurdles and headwinds are lone making it stronger.

Fidelity Digital Assets released its 2026 Look Ahead report, taking a heavy dive done immoderate of Bitcoin’s issues and dropping a aboriginal outlook.

On the method side, Fidelity pushed backmost hard connected claims that Ordinals, inscriptions, oregon OP_RETURN enlargement are “breaking” Bitcoin.

On-chain information shows artifact abstraction request stayed debased passim 2025, adjacent aft aggregate waves of alleged “spam.”

Fidelity argues that if request does rise, higher fees are a steadfast outcome, strengthening miner economics alternatively than harming usability.

The study besides addressed interior governance tensions (Core vs. Knots), informing that attempts to censor non-financial transactions via statement changes would undermine Bitcoin’s halfway properties: immutability, decentralization, and censorship resistance.

Looking ahead, Fidelity highlighted quantum preparedness arsenic a increasing focus. Roughly 6.6M BTC could theoretically beryllium astatine hazard owed to exposed nationalist keys, but developers are proactively exploring solutions similar BIP-360, with the mantra “prepared, not scared.”

On the macro front, Fidelity outlined a bullish setup driven by:

• QT ending and liquidity easing

• Fiscal dominance and rising indebtedness burdens

• $7.5T sitting successful wealth marketplace funds that could rotate into hazard assets

• Gold and Bitcoin’s humanities narration and the imaginable rotation successful 2026

• A beardown humanities correlation betwixt planetary M2 maturation and Bitcoin

Institutionally, Bitcoin and Ethereum are progressively treated arsenic halfway portfolio allocations, with spot Bitcoin ETPs holding $123B successful AUM arsenic of precocious 2025.

Fidelity’s outlook for 2026 boils down to a conflict betwixt liquidity and macro risk.

The bull case is straightforward.

Global liquidity is starting to turn. Quantitative tightening appears to beryllium ending, argumentation is dilatory loosening, and governments are intelligibly choosing maturation implicit austerity arsenic indebtedness levels balloon. With U.S. indebtedness supra $38 trillion and debt-to-GDP adjacent 125%, past suggests easier wealth is the way of slightest resistance.