3 weeks ago
14
Trey Thoelcke
Wed, March 18, 2026 astatine 7:15 AM CDT 4 min read
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Mosaic (MOS) formed a associated task with Rainbow Rare Earths to extract neodymium and praseodymium from phosphogypsum discarded astatine its Brazil facility, with people accumulation successful 2030 and a prefeasibility survey underway, portion MP Materials (MP) trades astatine 38.3x price-to-sales contempt antagonistic earnings. A Middle East proviso daze is pushing fertilizer prices higher, but the banal faces headwinds from a DOJ antitrust probe and cultivation groups pressuring Mosaic implicit phosphate import duties.
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Western governments are gathering alternate uncommon earths sourcing to trim China’s dominance, creating geopolitical urgency that drove Mosaic’s banal 10% higher connected the uncommon earths announcement contempt the task being 4 years from production.
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Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) has spent astir of its nationalist beingness trading connected fertilizer cycles. The five-year instrumentality of −14.9% reflects that reality. Then, connected March 11, the banal jumped 10% successful a azygous league connected quality that had thing to bash with potash oregon phosphate prices.
The catalyst was a associated task with Rainbow Rare Earths to extract neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) from phosphogypsum astatine Mosaic's existing Uberaba, Minas Gerais installation successful Brazil. Phosphogypsum is simply a fertilizer byproduct discarded watercourse that Mosaic presently disposes of. The Rainbow JV converts that disposal outgo into a imaginable gross watercourse with minimal incremental capital. A preliminary economical appraisal is complete, a prefeasibility survey is underway, and people accumulation is acceptable for 2030.
NdPr are utilized successful the imperishable magnets that powerfulness EV motors, upwind turbines, and defence systems. China controls the ascendant stock of planetary supply, and Western governments are actively gathering alternate sourcing. That geopolitical urgency is wherefore a fertilizer company's announcement of a uncommon earths task moved its banal 10% successful 1 day.
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Mosaic presently trades astatine a trailing P/E of astir 16x and a price-to-book of 0.77, classical fertilizer cyclical multiples. MP Materials (NYSE: MP), the closest U.S. uncommon earths pure-play, is up 122.2% implicit the past twelvemonth and trades astatine a price-to-sales ratio of 38.3x contempt reporting a trailing EPS of −$0.50. The marketplace is paying a important premium for captious minerals optionality, adjacent without existent profitability.
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