Q2 US Leveraged Finance Survey: Software, inflation remain in the crosshairs

Kenny Tang

Tue, June 30, 2026 astatine 8:57 AM CDT 7 min read

The US-Iran warfare disrupted planetary vigor markets successful Q2, pushing lipid prices higher, and ostentation rose, with yearly CPI astatine 4.2% successful May. For now, a tentative US-Iran bid woody has brought lipid prices beneath $80 per barrel, though a imperishable bid woody that would extremity the struggle is proving hard to achieve. AI disruption inactive commands front-page attention, arsenic credit-risk concerns for the Software assemblage stay successful play. Will uncertainty persist successful the 3rd quarter, bringing much volatility crossed recognition markets, peculiarly US leveraged loans? Will we spot immoderate instrumentality to stability, oregon volition recognition marketplace conditions worsen? In PitchBook LCD's latest US Leveraged Finance Survey, we asked marketplace participants to measurement in.

As always, LCD surveyed buy-side, sell-side, and advisory professionals to gauge marketplace expectations for the months ahead. The afloat results of the Q2 2026 US Leveraged Finance Survey, conducted from June 16-29, are elaborate below.

Key takeaways:

• Inflation is the apical interest for recognition marketplace participants — 43% judge ostentation rates volition beryllium 3.5% oregon higher successful the 2nd fractional of the year.

• Spread widening expectations retreated sharply, with conscionable 25% of respondents anticipating wider spreads implicit the adjacent six months.

• Software remains firmly successful the crosshairs: 71% of respondents named it the slightest favorable assemblage for recognition concern successful H2.

• AI anxiousness is sharpening: 10% of respondents study precise precocious concern, up from zero, with 77% somewhat concerned.

• M&A optimism is building: 44% expect higher issuance, with nary forecasting a decline.

• Default fears are fading: 58% expect astatine slightest a humble rise, down sharply from 92% past quarter.

Eight-one percent of respondents judge ostentation volition beryllium 3% oregon higher successful H2, up sharply from 52% who held that presumption past quarter. Some 12% expect ostentation of 4% oregon higher. No responsive believed it would beryllium beneath 2.50%.