SpaceX Stock Soared 19% on Its Market Debut. Here's Why I'm Not Buying It.

1 hour ago 2

Anthony Di Pizio, The Motley Fool

Mon, June 15, 2026 astatine 8:30 AM CDT 5 min read

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) went nationalist connected Friday, June 12, and ended the time with a 19% gain. The institution had a marketplace capitalization of $2.1 trillion astatine the adjacent of trading, making it the world's seventh-most-valuable company.

While SpaceX is champion known for processing the world's archetypal reusable rockets, absorption believes space-related solutions really correspond its smallest fiscal accidental successful the agelong run. Instead, the institution could marque astir of its wealth by selling connectivity and artificial quality (AI) solutions, and it's already having commercialized occurrence connected some fronts.

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That said, SpaceX is inactive generating precise small gross comparative to its tremendous marketplace capitalization, which I deliberation creates an uncomfortable risk-versus-reward concern for investors. Here's wherefore I'm not buying the stock.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Here's what SpaceX does

SpaceX divides its concern into 3 halfway segments:

Space: The institution uses its Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship rockets to motorboat satellites and different commercialized payloads into orbit connected behalf of businesses and governments.
Connectivity: The institution has much than 9,600 Starlink satellites successful orbit, which supply net entree to much than 10.3 cardinal paying subscribers connected Earth.
Artificial intelligence: SpaceX acquired Elon Musk's xAI start-up successful February. The associated companies run tremendous information centers that they usage to bid AI models specified arsenic Grok, but they besides rent spare computing capableness to different companies, including Anthropic and Alphabet.

SpaceX values its addressable marketplace successful the abstraction conception astatine $370 billion, whereas the connectivity concern presents a $1.6 trillion opportunity. But the AI concern dwarfs both, with a imaginable marketplace size of $26.5 trillion.

SpaceX is already liable for much than 80% of the world's wide to orbit successful the abstraction business, meaning it's launching much commercialized payloads than immoderate different institution oregon government, and it isn't adjacent close. This marketplace stock volition lone turn arsenic Starship is utilized much frequently, due to the fact that it has a payload capableness of 100 metric tons, much than 4 times the capableness of Falcon 9.

On the connectivity side, there's SpaceX with its fleet of satellites. The institution volition commencement launching its V3 satellites aboriginal this year, which volition connection much than 10 times the bandwidth of the existent V2 generation. Plus, Starship volition motorboat up to 60 V3 satellites into orbit astatine a time, whereas Falcon 9 has a capableness of conscionable 27.

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