Spot rates 25% behind inflation: A capacity crunch could change that

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Craig Fuller, CEO astatine FreightWaves

Sat, January 17, 2026 astatine 1:58 PM CST 3 min read

The U.S. trucking manufacture continues to look a harsh economical reality: spot rates person failed to support gait with inflation, squeezing bearer margins and contributing to important fiscal unit connected truckers nationwide.

Here’s a wide ocular of the disconnect — spot trucking rates (via the SONAR National Truckload Index) overlaid against the Consumer Price Index (CPI):

Truckload spot rates (SONAR: NTI.USA) vs. CPI (SONAR: CPI.USA). Source: GoSONAR.com

As of mid-January 2026, nationalist trucking spot rates are showing signs of spot pursuing a late-2025 rally, with caller levels approaching multi-year highs (the National Truckload Index is astatine $2.75 per mile according to SONAR, inclusive of fuel).

However, if spot rates had simply matched the cumulative maturation successful CPI since March 2020 — earlier freight markets initially surged aboriginal successful the pandemic — they would beryllium importantly higher, person to the equivalent of $3.50 per mile oregon more. That’s a important spread of astir 27%.

This disparity isn’t abstract. It translates straight into real-world symptom for owner-operators and tiny to mid-sized carriers, who carnivore the brunt of escalating operational costs. Fuel prices, motortruck maintenance, insurance, tires, operator wages, and regulatory compliance person each risen sharply since 2020, yet gross per mile has not kept up. Many truckers are operating astatine breakeven oregon worse, with immoderate exiting the manufacture wholly — a inclination that has contributed to gradual capableness tightening observed successful precocious 2025 and into aboriginal 2026.