Trump launches phase 2 of Gaza peace plan — but Hamas disarmament remains the real test

President Donald Trump’s medication formally launched the 2nd signifier of its program to extremity the warfare betwixt Israel and Hamas this week, shifting from a ceasefire model toward a post-ceasefire governmental and information signifier for Gaza. The announcement instantly raised a cardinal question that present dominates adept analysis: who volition really disarm Hamas.

U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff announced Wednesday that signifier 2 is underway, describing it arsenic a modulation "from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance and reconstruction." He warned that Hamas indispensable afloat comply with its obligations nether the deal, including the contiguous instrumentality of the last deceased Israeli hostage.

"The U.S. expects Hamas to comply afloat with its obligations, including the contiguous instrumentality of the last deceased hostage," Witkoff wrote connected X. "Failure to bash truthful volition bring superior consequences."

TRUMP FACES MIDDLE EAST TEST AS NETANYAHU BALKS AT ERDOGAN’S GAZA TROOP HOPES

U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff acknowledges applause by members of the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, successful Jerusalem connected Oct. 13, 2025. (Saul Loeb / POOL / AFP=via Getty Images)

President Donald Trump reinforced the administration’s announcement connected Thursday, penning connected Truth Social that the United States had "OFFICIALLY entered the adjacent signifier of Gaza’s 20-Point Peace Plan," pursuing Witkoff’s remarks. Trump said that since the ceasefire, his squad had helped present "RECORD LEVELS of Humanitarian Aid to Gaza, reaching Civilians astatine HISTORIC velocity and scale," adding that "even the United Nations has acknowledged this accomplishment arsenic UNPRECEDENTED." 

Trump wrote that these developments had "set the signifier for this adjacent phase," which helium said would see backing a recently appointed Palestinian technocratic government, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, to govern the territory during a transitional period. Trump described himself arsenic president of the Board of Peace, and said the committee would beryllium supported by the board’s precocious representative. 

Trump again warned that Hamas indispensable "IMMEDIATELY grant its commitments, including the instrumentality of the last assemblage to Israel, and proceed without hold to afloat Demilitarization," adding, "They tin bash this the casual way, oregon the hard way." Trump concluded the station by saying, "The radical of Gaza person suffered agelong enough. The clip is NOW. PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH."

The caller signifier envisions the constitution of a transitional technocratic Palestinian medication successful Gaza, portion the United States works with Egypt and different determination partners to guarantee compliance and stability. Yet the announcement offered fewer operational details, peculiarly regarding however Hamas would beryllium disarmed aft much than 2 decades of subject power successful the enclave.

MIDDLE EAST OFFICIALS LOOK TOWARD SECOND PHASE OF ISRAEL-HAMAS CEASEFIRE WITH TWO HOSTAGES LEFT IN GAZA

Palestinians marque their mode with belongings arsenic they fly their homes aft Israeli aerial strikes successful the bluish Gaza Strip May 16, 2025. (Mahmoud Issa/Reuters)

France backs ceasefire, assistance and semipermanent demilitarization

In an exclusive interrogation with Fox News Digital, Jérôme Bonnafont, France’s ambassador to the United Nations, called the ceasefire an "incredible achievement" and said signifier 2 could assistance laic the groundwork for bid without Hamas.

"The Trump program is establishing a ceasefire, which is an unthinkable achievement," Bonnafont said. "It has to spell to a monolithic reopening of humanitarian aid, and it is going to beryllium announced wrong a mates of days."

He said the adjacent signifier includes an planetary stabilization unit that would enactment reconstruction and lend to Hamas’s disarmament.

"That would assistance disarm Hamas, and that volition assistance the Palestinian Authority instrumentality and democratically restart the absorption of Gaza arsenic portion of the Palestinian territory," helium said.

Bonnafont emphasized that France views Israel’s information arsenic a priority, peculiarly successful the look of determination threats. "We person ever been connected the broadside of Israel erstwhile it comes, for example, to the threats by Iran to the beingness of Israel," helium said.

At the aforesaid time, helium said France believes semipermanent information depends connected the instauration of a demilitarized Palestinian authorities surviving successful bid with Israel. "We judge that information for Israel successful the agelong word comes with the instauration of Palestine," Bonnafont said. "A Palestine that has to beryllium autarkic but demilitarized and successful bid with Israel."

The United Nations besides welcomed the announcement of signifier two, calling it "an important step" portion emphasizing adherence to planetary instrumentality and existing U.N. resolutions.

ISRAEL SHUTS DOOR ON TURKEY IN GAZA AS TRUMP PRAISES ERDOGAN, PLAYS DOWN CLASH

Destroyed buildings are pictured successful the westbound of Beit Lahia successful the bluish Gaza Strip connected Feb. 11, 2025. (Bashar Taleb/AFP via Getty Images)

A program advances, but the hardest occupation remains

Israeli and U.S. information analysts broadly hold that signifier 2 cannot win without addressing Hamas’s weapons and coercive power.

Dr. Avner Golov, vice president of the Israeli argumentation institute Mind Israel, told Fox News Digital that, "The cardinal situation is Hamas’s demilitarization," Golov said. "The lone actors genuinely consenting to dismantle Hamas’s subject capabilities are the Israelis, and arsenic agelong arsenic Hamas remains armed, determination should beryllium nary rebuilding and nary IDF withdrawal from the existent antiaircraft line."

"In the end, determination indispensable beryllium a credible subject menace from the IDF against Hamas," helium said. "Without specified a threat, I spot nary accidental that Hamas volition voluntarily disarm."

Golov besides pointed to what helium described arsenic a spread betwixt diplomatic commitments and enactment by determination actors. "The cardinal trial is Turkey and Qatar," helium said. "They signed a papers committing to Hamas’s disarmament, but since past they person not demonstrated existent committedness to implementing it."

US SEEKS UN AUTHORIZATION FOR GAZA INTERNATIONAL FORCE LASTING THROUGH 2027 UNDER TRUMP PLAN

President Donald Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi clasp the signed statement of the archetypal signifier of the Gaza ceasefire betwixt Israel and Hamas, successful Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, Oct. 13, 2025.  (Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters )

Reconstruction without information seen arsenic unrealistic

Jonathan Ruhe, a chap for American Strategy astatine the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), argued that signifier 2 presents a elaborate reconstruction model but avoids the astir politically hard decision.

"The bid program offers a elaborate model for rebuilding Gaza and promoting amended governance," Ruhe said. "But it’s soundless connected the ‘who’ and ‘how’ of disarming Hamas."

"As agelong arsenic Hamas tin interrupt assistance distribution, intimidate and termination Gazans who privation a amended future, and endanger renewed warfare with Israel, planetary concern successful reconstruction and betterment volition beryllium adjacent zero," helium said.

While Trump’s program calls for Hamas to disarm voluntarily, Ruhe besides said Hamas has small crushed to bash so. "Hamas refuses due to the fact that it thinks it won the war," helium said. "Now determination is an urgent request to determine who volition disarm Hamas forcefully."

Ruhe noted that a U.N. Security Council solution authorizes an International Stabilization Force to disarm Hamas, but helium said nary state has been consenting to enactment troops successful that role. Instead, helium said the Trump program outlines a much constricted ngo for planetary forces, focused connected guarding assistance sites and preventing Hamas resupply.

"Trump and Netanyahu some said Israel mightiness person to disarm Hamas," Ruhe said. "But the IDF crushed forces request to remainder and refit aft 2 years of grueling combat, and a large violative risks blowing up the planetary conjugation needed for signifier two."

He suggested that well-vetted backstage subject contractors, overseen by U.S. information officials alternatively than U.S. Central Command, could play a role, though helium acknowledged specified a determination would impact "hard fighting."

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The IDF announced that arsenic portion of the ceasefire statement and successful accordance with the directive of the governmental echelon, IDF troops nether the Southern Command person begun marking the Yellow Line successful the Gaza Strip to found tactical clarity connected the ground. (IDF)

A narrowing window

Despite diplomatic momentum, analysts interviewed by Fox News Digital cautioned that clip whitethorn beryllium moving against the plan. "The presumption quo favors Hamas arsenic it continues tightening its grip implicit its fractional of Gaza," Ruhe said. "Announcing the Board of Peace serves important diplomatic purposes, but it won’t mean overmuch connected the crushed unless and until Hamas is disarmed."

Golov echoed that assessment. "As agelong arsenic Hamas remains armed, determination should beryllium nary rebuilding and nary IDF withdrawal from the existent antiaircraft line," helium said.