Who is Turkey's Erdoğan? How NATO's most unpredictable leader keeps reinventing himself

As President Donald Trump heads to Ankara, Turkey, for the upcoming NATO summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is again astatine the halfway of confederation politics. 

Trump has praised Erdoğan arsenic "a friend" and "a respected leader," underscoring a narration that could signifier defence talks betwixt Washington and Turkey, including Turkey’s long-running effort to reconstruct deeper subject cooperation. 

The infinitesimal highlights the singular presumption Erdoğan occupies today: Once regarded arsenic 1 of NATO’s astir troublesome allies aft taking transportation of the Russian S-400 rocket defence strategy successful 2019, Turkey has go progressively hard for the confederation to sideline arsenic the warfare successful Ukraine drags on, instability grips the Middle East and the Black Sea grows much strategic. 

For many, however, Erdoğan remains an enigma. Rather than being driven by a fixed worldview, experts argue, Erdoğan repeatedly has reinvented himself politically, adopting whichever ideology champion serves his overriding objective: remaining successful power. 

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As President Donald Trump heads to Ankara, Turkey, for the upcoming NATO summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is again astatine the halfway of confederation politics. (Pierre Crom/Getty Images)

Erdoğan has ruled Turkey for much than 2 decades, evolving from an Istanbul politician with Islamist roots into a pro-European reformer, past a nationalist strongman, and present a pivotal NATO powerfulness broker courted by Trump. 

To supporters, helium restored Turkey's planetary stature. To critics, helium hollowed retired its ideology portion jailing rivals, journalists and activists. But Erdoğan's astir defining trait, experts say, whitethorn beryllium little ideology than survival.

Is helium an Islamist? A nationalist? A Western ally? A Russian partner? An authoritarian?

Perhaps the astir important happening to recognize astir Erdoğan is that helium has been each of those things — astatine antithetic moments, according to Gönül Tol, founding manager of the Middle East Institute's Turkey Program and writer of "Erdoğan's War: A Strongman's Struggle astatine Home and successful Syria." 

"He's not an ideological man," Tol told Fox News Digital. "He's precise pragmatic, archetypal and foremost a populist."

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remains an enigma for many. (AP)

The Conservative Democrat

Erdoğan’s roots prevarication successful Turkey’s Islamist governmental movement. Educated astatine an Imam Hatip spiritual school, helium entered authorities done National Outlook, a right-wing Islamist question founded by Necmettin Erbakan, and yet became politician of Istanbul arsenic a subordinate of Erbakan’s Welfare Party.

But aft founding the AKP, oregon Justice and Development Party, successful 2001, Erdoğan abandoned the Islamist label, presenting himself alternatively arsenic a "conservative democrat" committed to economical betterment and person ties with Europe — a displacement that experts accidental marked the archetypal of respective governmental reinventions.

When Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party archetypal swept to powerfulness successful 2002, Turkey was seeking rank successful the European Union, subject power implicit authorities was shrinking, and Erdoğan promised antiauthoritarian reforms, economical modernization and person ties with the West.

Many liberals and centrists initially supported him.

"He often said, 'I'm not an Islamist anymore. I'm a blimpish democrat,'" Tol said. "And that marque truly served him well."

Those aboriginal years transformed some Turkey's system and Erdoğan's popularity.

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Many liberals and centrists initially supported Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan. (Dilara Senkaya/Reuters)

The Islamist

After consolidating power, Erdoğan began different governmental transformation.

Following the Arab Spring successful 2011, helium progressively portrayed himself arsenic a champion of governmental Islam, backing Islamist movements crossed the Middle East portion presenting himself domestically arsenic the defender of Turkey's blimpish spiritual majority.

"He wanted to inject much Islam into nationalist life, into education," Tol said. "He was utilizing this much Islamist narrative... the extremity was ever to get much power."

That anti-Western crook went beyond rhetoric. 

In 2016, Erdoğan accused the U.S.-led conjugation of supporting violent groups successful Syria, including ISIS and Kurdish militias that Turkey considers violent organizations— an allegation the State Department dismissed arsenic "ludicrous," according to Reuters.

His progressively vocal enactment for Hamas and crisp disapproval of Israel became defining features of his overseas policy. 

"The perpetrators of the massacre and the demolition taking spot successful Gaza are those providing unlimited enactment for Israel," Erdoğan said successful 2023, adding that Israel's attacks and those backing them amounted to "murder and intelligence illness," according to Reuters.

Tol cautions against viewing those positions unsocial arsenic grounds that Erdoğan remains chiefly motivated by Islamism. 

"Anti-Israel sentiment cuts crossed ideological lines successful Turkey," she said, arguing that Erdoğan's overseas argumentation has consistently reflected governmental calculation much than spiritual doctrine.

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Protesters transportation a banner with pictures of the slain Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar. (Murat Kocabas/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

The nationalist strongman

As Turkey's system slowed and determination ambitions faltered, Erdoğan pivoted erstwhile again.

He embraced Turkish nationalism, built alliances with hardline nationalist parties and cultivated the representation of an indispensable strongman susceptible of restoring Turkey's humanities influence.

Supporters recognition him with transforming Turkey into a determination power.

"He does person genuine support," Tol said, estimating his enactment astatine astir 35%.

Some supporters beryllium connected authorities assistance and patronage networks built nether his rule. Others judge Erdoğan restored dignity to blimpish spiritual Turks who agelong felt marginalized by the country's secular establishment.

Still others presumption his progressively assertive overseas argumentation arsenic impervious Turkey has reclaimed its spot connected the satellite stage.

"They think, 'We person go a world-class nation,'" Tol said. "'Everyone is praising our president. Turkey is simply a large player.'"

While Erdoğan continues to bid a loyal governmental base, critics accidental the terms has been Turkey's antiauthoritarian institutions.

Authorities progressively person utilized courts and transgression investigations to sideline governmental opponents, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, whose apprehension earlier successful 2026 triggered nationwide demonstrations, according to Human Rights Watch.

The enactment says the authorities has intensified efforts to weaken Turkey's main absorption enactment contempt its beardown show successful the 2024 municipal elections.

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President Donald Trump greets Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a acme to enactment ending the warfare successful Gaza, Oct. 13, 2025, successful Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. (Evan Vucci AP Photo/ Pool)

The NATO dealmaker

Today, Erdoğan finds himself successful different governmental transformation.

After years of anti-Western rhetoric and disputes with Washington, Turkey has worked to repair relations with the United States and Europe.

That rhetoric was erstwhile cardinal to Erdoğan's posture. 

He accused the U.S.-led conjugation successful Syria of supporting violent groups, blasted Washington's sanctions implicit Turkey's acquisition of the Russian S-400 rocket defence system, calling them a "hostile attack" connected Turkey's sovereign rights and defence industry, and repeatedly accused Western governments of enabling Israel's warfare successful Gaza.

The displacement comes arsenic Turkey's strategical value has grown dramatically.

The S-400 acquisition remains astatine the halfway of 1 of the biggest unresolved disputes betwixt Washington and Ankara. After Turkey took transportation of the Russian strategy successful 2019, the U.S. expelled Turkey from the F-35 combatant pitchy programme and aboriginal imposed sanctions connected Turkey's defence procurement agency.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey precocious told Fox News Digital that restoring Turkey to the F-35 programme remains acold much analyzable than different defence deals due to the fact that operating the Russian-made S-400 alongside America's astir precocious stealth combatant could exposure delicate U.S. technology.

"The F-35 is simply a antithetic issue," Jeffrey said, arguing that the occupation is technical, not simply political.

Turkey controls the Bosporus and Dardanelles, fields NATO's second-largest subject and plays a captious relation successful the Black Sea pursuing Russia's penetration of Ukraine.

Jeffrey said that Turkey has been "essential to Ukraine staying successful the fight," pointing to Turkey's enforcement of the Montreux Convention, a 1936 pact that gives Turkey power implicit naval transition done the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, its aboriginal transportation of Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, and its relation arsenic a mediator betwixt Kyiv and Moscow. 

"You can't incorporate Russia successful the Black Sea without Turkey," Jeffrey said.

For Tol, however, Erdoğan's latest clasp of NATO is simply different illustration of his governmental flexibility.

"There was a clip erstwhile helium was precise anti-Western, precise captious of NATO, precise captious of the United States," she said.

"And present look astatine him."

People chant slogans arsenic they protestation the apprehension of Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu successful Istanbul, Turkey, March 19, 2025. (Francisco Seco/The Associated Press )

Growing criticism

Human Rights Watch argues Erdoğan has utilized Turkey's increasing value to NATO arsenic governmental screen portion expanding unit connected journalists, activists and absorption figures.

Freedom House says Erdoğan has go "increasingly authoritarian" implicit the past decade, consolidating powerfulness done law changes and the imprisonment of governmental opponents, autarkic journalists and civilian nine figures.

Turkey's prisons held much than 420,000 inmates — acold exceeding their authoritative capableness of astir 304,000, according to a June 2026 study citing Turkish Justice Ministry figures.

 NATO allies person grown quieter connected Turkey's rights grounds arsenic Ankara's strategical worth has risen, Reuters reported up of the summit, with erstwhile U.S. Ambassador David Satterfield saying it remains important for the West to talk publically astir the "degradation of antiauthoritarian institutions successful Turkey."

Tol believes Erdoğan's home docket tin beryllium understood done a azygous principle.

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People instrumentality portion successful a objection against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Sweden's NATO bid arranged by The Kurdish Democratic Society Center successful Sweden, successful Stockholm, Jan. 21. 2023. (Christine Olsson/TT via AP)

"Everything is designed to support him successful power," she said. "Beyond that, I don't spot a binding ideology that brings unneurotic each his policies."

As Trump heads to Turkey, that whitethorn beryllium the cardinal to knowing 1 of NATO's astir consequential — and unpredictable — leaders.

Fox News Digital reached retired to the Turkish authorities for comment.

Fox News Digital's Morgan Phillips and Reuters contributed to this report.