Why 'Big Short' trader Danny Moses thinks investors need to pay close attention to prediction markets

• Prediction markets person boomed, and Americans are betting connected everything from sports to Labubus.

• Danny Moses, a trader made celebrated by 'The Big Short,' thinks the marketplace is acceptable to expand.

• He told Business Insider wherefore helium believes investors should beryllium paying adjacent attraction to betting platforms.

You tin stake connected beauteous overmuch thing these days. From sports to the upwind to the terms of a Labubu, platforms similar Polymarket and Kalshi person offered radical a caller mode to gamble.

According to Danny Moses, 1 of the investors from "The Big Short," they've besides offered investors a utile instrumentality to assistance navigate markets.

Moses, who was among the investors betting against the US lodging marketplace up of the 2008 crash, isn't amazed by the prediction-market boom, and helium thinks investors request to beryllium watching these markets intimately to enactment connected apical of their game.

"I deliberation it's large to scan done each the prediction markets retired there, surely economics and business-related, due to the fact that it really volition get you reasoning astir things you mightiness person been missing," helium told Business Insider successful an interrogation earlier the caller year.

Moses isn't excessively focused connected abbreviated opportunities these days, contempt being celebrated for his relation successful Michael Lewis's now-iconic saga of the lodging crash. But helium thinks that prediction markets tin service to supply invaluable info for bullish and bearish investors alike.

He pointed to the caller illustration of fashionable fintech banal SoFi Technologies being listed arsenic having a 38% accidental of being added to the benchmark scale successful 2026, thing that could beryllium a apt catalyst for the stock, which is up 93% successful the past year.

"If you're abbreviated SoFi and you weren't reasoning astir the anticipation of it being added to the S&P 500, similar we conscionable saw hap to Carvana recently, that's thing you request to beryllium alert of," Moses said.

That's not the lone mode prediction markets could assistance investors marque smarter decisions. Moses said helium thinks determination whitethorn beryllium circumstances wherever they tin connection a much appealing risk-reward than investors mightiness get from accepted derivatives. He cited crypto arsenic an example.

"Will bitcoin commercialized beneath $70,000 successful the archetypal 4th of 2026?" helium mused. "Well, if I ain bitcoin, and it's a overmuch cheaper mode to bet, if it's an 8 cent possibility, truthful telephone it 12 to one, I mightiness beryllium getting a amended market, oregon I mightiness privation to bargain that alternatively than buying a enactment enactment connected crypto."

In his view, it's aboriginal days for prediction markets. Their usefulness volition turn arsenic a predictive instrumentality for hedging accepted investments arsenic good arsenic gauging the likelihood of market-moving events. And arsenic they grow, expect much salient players to participate, helium said.