Why One Analyst Thinks LLY Is Worth $850 While the Rest of Wall Street Targets $1,216

3 weeks ago 10

Joel South

Tue, March 17, 2026 astatine 11:25 AM CDT 4 min read

Eli Lilly (LLY) faces a downgrade to Reduce from HSBC expert Rajesh Kumar, who chopped his terms people from $1,070 to $850, citing overestimated obesity cause marketplace size ($80B-$120B by 2032 versus existent expectations of $150B+) and accelerating terms competition, with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating 60% of Q4 2025 gross ($11.67B of $19.29B total).
HSBC believes GLP-1 pricing unit volition intensify arsenic measurement carries gross growth, with U.S. prices already down precocious azygous digits successful Q3 2025 contempt 62% measurement growth, portion oral campaigner orforglipron motorboat expectations whitethorn beryllium inflated.
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Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) shares person pulled backmost sharply, falling 9% implicit the past month, and 13% year-to-date. Most Wall Street analysts stay constructive, with a statement terms people of $1,216.93 and 24 buy-equivalent ratings versus conscionable 1 beardown sell. Now, HSBC expert Rajesh Kumar is stepping against that tide, downgrading LLY to Reduce with a terms people of $850, a important discount to wherever shares presently trade. But tin LLY realistically scope $850 by extremity of 2026?

Kumar chopped his people from $1,070 to $850, arguing that the obesity cause market's full addressable marketplace is being overstated by investors. HSBC believes the obesity marketplace volition scope $80 cardinal to $120 cardinal by 2032, good beneath the $150 billion-plus fig embedded successful existent expectations. The steadfast besides warns that terms contention successful the GLP-1 abstraction is apt to beryllium significant, and that Lilly's 2026 obesity terms cuts correspond a meaningful headwind adjacent arsenic management's guidance implies continued high-volume growth.

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Oral GLP-1 Expectations May Be Too High: HSBC believes motorboat expectations for Lilly's oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, are elevated, and that compliance and persistence with oral anti-obesity medications could disappoint. While an oral pill could grow access, converting that into durable gross is simply a antithetic challenge.
Pricing Pressure Is Accelerating: Lilly's ain filings corroborate measurement is carrying the gross load portion prices fall. U.S. prices declined by precocious azygous digits successful Q3 2025, with 10% little realized prices partially offsetting a 62% measurement increase. That dynamic is improbable to reverse.
Concentration Risk successful Two Products: Mounjaro and Zepbound unneurotic generated $11.67 cardinal of Lilly's $19.29 cardinal successful Q4 2025 revenue, representing implicit 60% of the quarter's total. Any request softness oregon pricing concession successful either cause flows straight to the bottommost line.