Will Tesla Stock Hit $600 This Year?

The question successful this article's rubric cuts to the bosom of the Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) debate. With shares having clawed backmost to $426.01 and momentum gathering disconnected April lows, bulls are whispering astir a tally to $600. Our proprietary exemplary has a antithetic view.

Tesla sits astir 17% beneath its 52-week precocious of $498.83, and reaching $600 successful 2026 requires steep gains. Our 24/7 Wall St. terms people for Tesla is $424.84, implying -0.27% from existent levels. Our proposal is clasp with a 90% assurance reading. We presumption Tesla arsenic reasonably priced contiguous and bash not spot $600 arsenic a realistic 2026 outcome.

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Why We Could Be Wrong

Our terms people sits a hairsbreadth beneath wherever Tesla trades today, and Tesla is arguably the astir divisive banal successful the market. Real upside could travel from faster-than-expected Robotaxi enlargement crossed Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, and Las Vegas, oregon from Optimus accumulation lines exceeding 1 cardinal robots per twelvemonth capableness astatine Fremont. Consider our people 1 datapoint among many.

From April Lows Back to $426

Tesla has rallied 9.94% implicit the past period disconnected the April bottommost adjacent $391.95, though shares stay down 5.27% twelvemonth to date. Q1 2026 results reset the narrative: gross of $22.39 cardinal roseate 15.78% YoY, non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 bushed statement of $0.3592, and automotive gross borderline expanded to 21.1% from 16.2%. Active FSD subscriptions climbed 51% YoY to 1.28 million, and Services gross jumped 42%. The post-earnings betterment has been real, but shares inactive commercialized astatine 421x trailing earnings.