‘Worse than a recession’: Ray Dalio said Trump’s agenda could push America to conditions ‘like the 30s’. Was he right?

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The laminitis of Bridgewater Associates, 1 of the world’s largest hedge funds, has voiced interest that President Donald Trump’s economical docket could pb to “something worse than a recession.”

“Right now, we are astatine a decision-making constituent and precise adjacent to a recession,” billionaire capitalist Ray Dalio told NBC’s Meet the Press connected April 13. “And I’m disquieted astir thing worse than a recession if this isn’t handled good (1).”

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A recession is typically defined arsenic 2 consecutive quarters of antagonistic GDP growth. A overmuch much “profound” alteration would beryllium a breakdown of the existent monetary bid (it’s worthy pointing retired that Dalio correctly predicted the 2008 fiscal crisis).

Trump has triggered planetary economical chaos with his on-again, off-again tariffs (2). But Dalio fears thing worse — the U.S. could extremity up isolated arsenic its biggest trading partners motion cross-border agreements which exclude the world’s largest system (3).

“But by and large, it’s changing the satellite bid successful a mode which is making it much inefficient and really causing maturation astir the United States,” Dalio said during the Paley Media Council lawsuit connected May 22 (4).

The extremity of the Second World War ushered successful a caller monetary and geopolitical satellite order. But past tends to repetition itself. Tariffs, combined with a precocious level of indebtedness and a rising superpower challenging the existing superpower, could pb to “profound changes” successful the satellite order.

“Such times are precise overmuch similar the 1930s,” helium told NBC.

“These spell successful cycles that tin beryllium measured, and I interest astir the breakdown of that benignant of order, peculiarly since it doesn’t request to happen,” helium noted, adding that determination are amended ways to restructure debt.

Whether tariffs are implemented successful a “stable” mode oregon a “chaotic and disruptive way” tin marque “all the quality successful the world,” helium said. But truthful far, the tariffs person been akin to “throwing rocks into the accumulation system.” In different words, highly disruptive.

Despite Dalio’s warning, caller information suggest the U.S. system continues to grow, expanding by an estimated 1.9% successful 2025 (5), though determination are inactive signs of concern.